2007 Hurricane Season
After the tremendous destruction brought about by recent hurricane seasons, it is understandable that people are worried what the 2007 hurricane season may bring. Each ocean has a different hurricane season. The 2007 hurricane season for the Atlantic officially starts on June 1, 2007 and runs through November 30, 2007. The 2007 hurricane season for the Pacific officially starts on May 15, 2007 and runs through November 30, 2007.
Each year, the World Meteorological Organization develops a list of hurricanes names, alternating between male and female names, before the season starts. The names to be used for the 2007 Hurricane Season for the Atlantic are Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dean, Erin, Felix, Gabrielle, Humberto, Ingrid, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Noel, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya. Van, and Wendy. The names that are to be used for this Atlantic season will not be used again until 2013. The names to be used for the 2007 Hurricane Season for the Pacific are Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, Lorena, Manuel, Narda, Octave, Priscilla, Raymond, Sonia, Tico, Velma, Wallis, Xina, and York. The same list of names was used in 2001 with the exception of Alvin. In 2001, Adolph was used, but was retired for political reasons.
Each year, the meteorologists predict how many tropical storms there will be and of those tropical storms, how many will turn into hurricanes. A tropical storm is classified as one in which the winds reach between 39 and 73 miles per hour. Anything 74 miles per hour is classified as a hurricane. Hurricanes that sustain winds between 74 miles per hour and 95 miles per hour are classified as a Category 1. Hurricanes that sustain winds between 96 miles per hour and 110 miles per hour are classified as a Category 2. Hurricanes that sustain winds between 111 miles per hour and 130 miles per hour are classified as a Category 3. Hurricanes that sustain winds between 131 miles per hour and 155 miles per hour are classified as a Category 4. Hurricanes that sustain winds over 155 miles per hour are classified as a Category 5. Anything over 111 miles per hour is classified as a major hurricane.
Information obtained through November 2006 indicates that the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season will be more active than the average 1950-2000 season. It is estimated that 2007 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 14 named storms (average is 9.6), 70 named storm days (average is 49.1), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 8 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be about 125 percent of the long-period average. It is expected Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2007 to be about 140 percent of the long-term average. This forecast is based on a recently-developed 6-11 month extended range statistical forecast procedure which utilizes 52 years of past data and began being utilized operationally in 2002. Predictors in this scheme include five selective measures of September-November North Atlantic and Pacific surface pressure and 500 mb height fields and a measure of the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). A second new extended-range early December experimental statistical prediction scheme is also consulted. Analog predictors have also been utilized. The influences of El Niño conditions are implicit in these predictor fields, and therefore we do not utilize a specific ENSO forecast as a predictor. The current El Niño conditions to dissipate by the active part of the 2007 Atlantic basin hurricane season.
