Government forecasters on Tuesday predicted a "very active" hurricane season
Government forecasters on Tuesday predicted a "very active" hurricane season, calling for 13-17 named storms, including seven to 10 hurricanes with three to five of those in the major category.The Atlantic basin remains in an era of heightened intensity, where more powerful storms are prone to emerge each year. Also, La Niña, an atmospheric condition that fosters storm activity, likely will develop by the peak of the season, possibly to moderate strength.
"An active season increases the possibly of a land falling hurricane," said Conrad C. Lautenbacher Jr., top administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. "It just takes one hurricane to make it a bad year for everyone." The 2007 Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.
Gerry Bell, NOAA's lead hurricane forecaster, said most of the storms will arrive in August, September and October. He said the powerful storms that form near the African coast during those months are the ones that must be monitored most closely.
"They pose an increased threat to the United States," he said. "With an active season, it's about where the hurricanes form."
"We're always concerned that infrequency can be disarming," he said. "Make sure you have plans to assure the proper response if your area comes under a hurricane warning."
Underscoring that point was Michael Chertoff, secretary of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security.
"Last year was an unexpectedly easy season," he said. "There's no guarantee this season is going to be anything but very tough. It is a big mistake to count on being lucky. It's much better to prepare for the worst."
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